State of Climate Action

Assessing Progress toward 2030 and 2050

Partners:

Conclusion

This report has provided a snapshot of climate action and assessed progress toward 2030 and 2050 targets in key sectors. It is clear that tremendous gaps in action exist. Countries, cities, and companies are advancing climate action but not yet at the level of ambition needed to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. In the run-up to COP26, countries have the opportunity to set more ambitious commitments to scale up action.

Francesco Ungaro/Unsplah

Countries have adopted a variety of commitments, but they still fall woefully short of the required ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals. In 2019, 104 countries committed to enhancing their NDCs in 2020 (COP25 Presidency 2019), representing roughly 15 percent of global GHG emissions (ClimateWatch 2020a). Eleven countries had submitted NDCs to the UNFCCC by June 2020, but these countries account for only about 3 percent of global GHG emissions, and not all of these submissions reflect strengthened commitments. As of September 2020, 17 Parties had submitted their long-term strategies, representing a quarter of global GHG emissions (ClimateWatch 2020c). Yet despite this action, countries’ commitments are far off track if we are to avoid the most dangerous climate impacts. The impacts of a 1˚C world to date have affected us all—from more intense storms in regions around the world, to heat waves, to more extreme fires, and increased the odds of droughts. Even the temperature rise expected if countries implement their current climate commitments—3˚C above preindustrial levels (UNEP 2019)—will lead us to a very different world.

Cities and companies are also making strides in advancing climate action. As of September 2020, 10,932 cities and regions had committed to 12,577 climate actions registered on the UNFCCC Global Climate Action portal (UNFCCC 2020). And as of September 2020, 470 cities and regions had committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 through the Race to Zero global campaign (UNFCCC 2020). However, city-level efforts currently also fall short of the ambition needed to align with a 1.5-degree pathway (GCOM 2019).

Regarding corporate action, as of September 2020, 5,106 companies and investors had committed to 10,658 climate actions registered on the UNFCCC Global Climate Action portal (UNFCCC 2020). Almost 1,000 companies are taking science-based climate action, and 467 companies have approved targets in line with what the latest climate science says is necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement—to limit global warming to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. And as of September 2020, 995 businesses and 38 investors had committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 through the Race to Zero global campaign (UNFCCC 2020). Yet, while corporate commitment to mitigate climate change is growing, only a small fraction of the millions of companies worldwide are taking the lead.

We find that countries are increasingly prioritizing and advancing adaptation efforts given the impetus of the Paris Agreement and the impacts of climate change that communities are already experiencing around the world. And while climate finance has increased significantly in recent years, it is not on scale with the finance needed to transform our energy system and for adaptation.

Lastly, an analysis of progress toward key decarbonization targets indicates that only 2 of the 21 indicators assessed have a historical pace of change commensurate with that required through 2030 and 2050 (see Box 2). However, options exist in all sectors to align emissions trajectories with what the science suggests is necessary to avoid the worst climate impacts.

This year, in the run-up to COP26, countries are requested under the Paris Agreement to update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and submit long-term strategies. These commitments to rapidly scale up action will be critical to ensuring that our future is safer, more equitable, and just.

Figure ES-1 | Summary of indicator assessment for sectoral emissions reductions

 

Notes: a While no global target is set for building energy intensity, from available historical data (IEA 2020h) current progress is not sufficient to achieve what is needed for a sustainable development scenario in 2030.

b While limited historical value of renovation rate data are available to calculate historical rate of change and the rate of change needed to achieve the targets, the 1–2 percent typical current rate of energy renovation (energy intensity reduction of around 15 percent) (IEA 2020a) is not sufficient for the deep renovation target set for 2030 and 2040.

c Historical level and historical rate of change are based on IEA (2020d) as a proxy to assess progress made, which is not sufficient with the pace of change needed to achieve the 2030 and 2050 targets.

d Notes on targets with insufficient data:

The buildings sector carbon intensity of buildings target is marked as “insufficient data” because insufficient (only 2017) historical data are available to assess historical rate of change globally. From the select regions discussed here, the progress is insufficient for some regions or heading in the wrong direction for others.

The industry carbon intensity of steel production target is marked as “insufficient data” because insufficient (only 2018) historical data are available to assess the historical progress globally.

The transport carbon intensity of land-based passenger transport target is marked as “insufficient data” because historical data are not available to assess the historical rate of change.

The agriculture food loss and waste target is marked as “insufficient data” because historical data are not yet available to track this indicator.

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