Stories Behind the Adaptation Commitments in the Nationally Determined Contributions of Cambodia, Rwanda, Colombia, and Fiji

2. Methodology

Case Study Country Selection

Using Dixit et al. (2022), the authors narrowed an initial data set of all countries that had submitted updated NDCs through June 30, 2021, by removing updated NDCs that did not include a separate adaptation component or prioritized adaptation actions, information on adaptation monitoring and evaluation (M&E), losses and damages, and potential transformative adaptation actions. Three qualifications were then used to finalize the selection of the four countries: geographic representation, recommendations from the NDC Partnership Support Unit based on government responsiveness, and final impressions from WRI staff who analyzed the adaptation NDCs as part of this work. Thus, the authors arrived at four countries:

  • In the Asia-Pacific region, Cambodia’s NDC demonstrates a striking improvement in content between the first and updated versions. Its updated NDC provides detailed information concerning both targets and costs for its adaptation priorities.
  • Rwanda was selected in Africa due to the unique level of detail its NDC provides on its adaptation priorities. Where many countries provide only cursory detail about their adaptation commitments, Rwanda has presented detailed costs and indicators for each of its adaptation priorities.
  • Colombia stands out in the Latin America and Caribbean region with an adaptation component that is highly detailed and comprehensive compared to its first submission, including a significant increase in adaptation priorities that were aligned with ongoing national and subnational adaptation planning processes.
  • Fiji, a small island developing state in the Pacific, recently completed its first national adaptation plan (NAP). Fiji developed an adaptation NDC based on its NAP, which focused on strengthening systems and developing capacities. Fiji’s NDC includes adaptation actions across the economy, although it does not include costs or indicators.

Country Analysis

After the authors selected the four countries, they conducted a total of 11 semistructured individual or group interviews with 17 experts involved in the adaptation NDC development process. The authors conducted 5 interviews for Rwanda and 2 each for Cambodia, Colombia, and Fiji. (See Appendix A for the interview questions and Appendix B for the full list of country experts interviewed.) These interviews aimed to capture the process of developing the adaptation NDCs. The authors recorded the interviews and analyzed the transcripts as well as gray literature, planning documents, reports, and relevant websites.

To analyze the process the four countries followed, the authors developed simple criteria based on the framework in Dixit et al. (2022) for assessing adaptation ambition in the content of adaptation NDCs. They then used these criteria to determine whether and how there was evidence for the following factors in the adaptation NDC development process:

  • A whole-of-government approach where all climate-relevant sectors are engaged in the development of the adaptation component
  • Alignment with national and subnational adaptation and development processes
  • A high level of integration of adaptation in ongoing sectoral planning processes
  • Use and strengthening of existing institutional arrangements for adaptation
  • Inclusion of recent information on climate change impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities; for example, from latest national communications
  • Wide stakeholder participation, including academia, relevant economic sectors, and diverse and vulnerable groups, during NDC development
  • A focus on reducing vulnerability and issues related to gender, youth, and Indigenous peoples

The small sample size of interviewees per country means that the results do not include a full range of perspectives. Almost all the respondents were closely involved in the NDC update process. Although they were knowledgeable about the details of development, a full range of stakeholder voices were not part of this investigation. Additionally, a lack of literature on adaptation NDC development prevents this research from being exhaustive. Despite these limitations, the snapshots from interviewees provide valuable insights into the development of adaptation NDCs and serve as positive examples for other countries.

The four case studies include countries with extensive adaptation NDCs and were picked to validate the above factors, which help to create strong adaptation NDCs, and to enable learning. The authors did not compare the case studies with processes that countries with less extensive adaptation NDCs followed. To strengthen subsequent analyses, instead of only identifying countries with strong NDCs, a matching set of similar countries with weaker adaptation NDCs could be identified, for example, by using the quantitative methodology developed by R.A. Nielsen (2016). A qualitative process tracing methodology then could be used to isolate and test for specific variables that lead to a stronger or weaker outcome.

Due to country-selection challenges, as well as time and resource constraints, the authors were unable to use these statistical matching and process tracing methods to further analyze the new sets of countries. Future work could refine what determines the strength of the adaptation NDC outcome and analyze them based on a robust parallel process analysis (Trampuscha and Palierb 2016). Such a process may provide stronger evidence for the role of causal factors that drive adaptation NDC development.

More details on the adaptation NDCs of the following countries, including individual adaptation priorities, costs, and indicators, can be found at www.climatewatchdata.org.

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