Food Systems At Risk

Transformative Adaptation for Long-Term Food Security

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  1. 1. Note that many of the citations included in this section refer to the TACR topical papers on crop research and development (Niles et al. 2020), climate services (Ashley et al. 2020), livestock production (Salman et al. 2019), and water management (Sixt et al. 2021, forthcoming), as well as applications of the TACR framework in Tye and Grinspan (2020) and Ferdinand et al. (2020).
  2. 2. Loss and damage is the term used to describe impacts of climate change that have not been or cannot be avoided through mitigation and adaptation efforts (Van der Geest and Warner 2015).
  3. 3. Since Ethiopia intends to increase coffee production and remain a key coffee exporting country in the future (NPC 2016), the analysis also estimated the potential economic gains of introducing garden coffee in the higher-altitude regions, where climate conditions will become suitable for coffee as temperatures rise. In these areas, introducing home garden coffee (see Appendix A, Section A1.1) will not only help restore the degraded agricultural land by increasing tree shade, but also provide additional cash income, playing an important role during times of food shortage (Linger 2014). These estimates were excluded from the cost-benefit analysis to ensure a fair comparison of the costs and benefits of the three adaptation scenarios.
  4. 4. Additionally, if arabica garden coffee were introduced and intercropped with the existing crops located in higher-altitude regions that become suitable for coffee due to temperature rise in the future, this will not only directly contribute to cash incomes of farmers in highland areas, but also serve as an agroforestry practice to diversify and sustain production for increased social, economic, and ecological benefits. The desire for more shade trees could also add value to and thereby incentivize restoration efforts. Assuming that an area of arabica garden coffee equivalent to the size of an unsuitable coffee production area will be intercropped in higher altitudes, this will generate at least another $1.2 billion over the next 35 years on top of the incomes that have been generated from the existing crop systems.
  5. 5. Khan, M. Correspondence between the author Tyler Ferdinand, research associate, and Mustafa Ali Khan, team leader SCA-Himalayas, Swiss Agency for Development, New Delhi, India. June 11, 2019.
  6. 6. Meaza, H. Correspondence between the author Tyler Ferdinand, research associate, and Hailemariam Meaza, assistant professor, Mekelle University, Tigray, Ethiopia. October 1, 2019.
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